A mathematical model of the geographic spread of disease



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This thesis presents an original model of the geographic spread of disease. The model can represent local geographic conditions and can be easily modified. It can be used as an extension of any set of differential equations, either deterministic or stochastic, used to describe a population in an epidemic state. The classical Kermack and McKendrick equations are extended and numerical solutions are generated for various initial conditions. The results indicate an interesting directional effect and suggest the development of a user oriented computer program for the study and simulation of epidemics. Such a program might be used as a communications tool to bring together continuing advances in our knowledge of the causes of epidemic disease and the mathematical theory of epidemics.