FORECAST THE REVEALED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE OF EXPORTING TECHNOLOGY INTENSIVE PRODUCTS FOR U.S., CHINA AND GERMANY

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dc.contributor.advisorProdan-Boul, Ruxandra
dc.contributor.committeeMemberThornton, Rebecca A.
dc.contributor.committeeMemberJiu, Brett
dc.creatorZhou, Shuang
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-19T14:45:25Z
dc.date.available2014-12-19T14:45:25Z
dc.date.createdAugust 2012
dc.date.issued2012-08
dc.date.updated2014-12-19T14:45:25Z
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, I calculate the RCA index for the three leading players in merchandise trade 2010: United States, China and Germany to measure and forecast their comparative advantage in exporting technology intensive products. I estimate and evaluate Holt’s exponential smoothing model and various ARIMA models, then choose the optimal model by minimizing BIC and RMSE to forecast the exports of technology intensive products and the total exports for U.S., China, Germany and the world. Then I calculate the forecasted RCA index based on values of the forecasted exports of technology intensive products and total exports. The results show that all the three countries have a comparative advantage in exporting technology intensive products and will keep holding the comparative advantage in the next 5 years. For China the advantage will continue increasing and exceed Germany in 2013, having the biggest comparative advantage in exporting technology intensive products.
dc.description.departmentEconomics, Department of
dc.format.digitalOriginborn digital
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10657/845
dc.language.isoeng
dc.rightsThe author of this work is the copyright owner. UH Libraries and the Texas Digital Library have their permission to store and provide access to this work. Further transmission, reproduction, or presentation of this work is prohibited except with permission of the author(s).
dc.subjectTechnology Intensive Products
dc.subjectHolt’s Exponential Smoothing Model
dc.subjectARIMA Model
dc.subjectComparative Advantage
dc.subjectRCA Index
dc.subject.lcshEconomics
dc.titleFORECAST THE REVEALED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE OF EXPORTING TECHNOLOGY INTENSIVE PRODUCTS FOR U.S., CHINA AND GERMANY
dc.type.dcmiText
dc.type.genreThesis
thesis.degree.collegeCollege of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences
thesis.degree.departmentEconomics, Department of
thesis.degree.disciplineEconomics
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Houston
thesis.degree.levelMasters
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Arts

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