An economic analysis of the growth of selected Latin American educational systems :' 1955-1965

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1974

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Abstract

Various economists have pointed out several socioeconomic factors which are alleged to have importance in the rise in educational enrollments. These factors include the ability of the educational system to produce an increased supply of teachers, the increasing level of gross domestic product, the increased entrance of female into the educational systems, rising retention rates in the educational systems, the increasing process of urbanization in the Latin American countries, and the increasing complexity of the production process. An attempt was made to quantify these factors for selected Latin American countries. Since these factors are at best difficult to quantify, the problem was simplified by assuming that there exists an optimal teacher/student ratio which each educational system is trying to achieve. This optimal ratio is hypothesised to be a function of real per capita gross domestic product. Through these assumptions it became possible to develop a supply function for teachers in an educational system. Further the model developed to provide estimates of another parameter, lamda. Lamda is the speed or the rate of response an educational system makes in attempting to achieve an optimal teacher/student ratio. The demand for education was considered to be a function of the size of the population, the social customs of the society, and the rate of return to the individual from investment in education. The return to education was conceived to be a function of the out of pocket expenses of the student while he was attending school, and the expected increase in earnings on the part of the student from his increased educational level. The expected increase in earnings was assumed to be a function of the economy's demand for educated individuals, which in turn is determined by the degree of complexity of the production process. For purposes of analysis proxy variables were selected to represent the factors determining the supply and demand for educational places. The number of teachers and the level of real per capita gross domestic product and the teacher/ student ratio were chosen to represent the supply of educational places. The rate of growth of the school age population, the rate of rural to urban migration, the sex composition of enrollments, the education retention rates, and the percentage of gross domestic product produced in the manufacturing sector were chosen to represent the factors determining the demand for education. Time series data was developed for enrollments and the proxy variables in the selected countries. This data was subjected to simple regression between enrollments and each of the proxy variables in the selected countries. Multiple regressions were run using different combinations of the proxy variables as independent variables. In addition cross sectional regressions for a single year wore run by converting the proxy variables into a per capita form wherever possible, and treating the selected countries as a single unit. Finally other statistical snalysis was performed through the comparison of ratios, and rates of growth. Two basic conclusion were reached in this study. Once dealt with the general aspects of the operations and problems of the educational systems under investigate, while the other dealt with the problems of making long run projections of educational enrollments. It was established, but not conclusively, that there exist optimal teacher/student ratios which the educational systems in the selected countries try to achieve. In the short run the teacher/student ratio is the basic mechanism which the system uses to balance the supply of educational places with enrollments. In the long run the educational systems attempt to reach the optimal teacher/student ratio by adjusting the stock of teachers to enrollments. The ability of the educational systems of the selected countries to achieve optimal teacher/student ratios has not been outstanding due to an inability to produce sufficient quantities of teachers. If these countries and other countries in similiar situations expect to achieve optimal teacher/student ratios they must pay more attention and devote more resources to the portion of the educational system which produces their countries teachers. It was established rather conclusively that educational planners must consider many socio-economic variables in long run projection of enrollments. Particularly important in long run projections of enrollments are the expected changes in the level of the per capita gross domestic product, possible increased proportions of females entering the educational system, the increasing complexity of the production process, changing retention rates within the educational system and possible changes in the rural/urban population distribution. In the selected countries changes in each of these factors were found to effect long run enrollment levels. Projections of enrollments which does not take into account these factors will likely prove to be quite incorrect.

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