s%% This BibTeX bibliography file was created using BibDesk.
%% http://bibdesk.sourceforge.net/


%% Created for Chris Biolsi at 2015-04-15 15:59:27 -0500 


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@string{aer = {American Economic Review}}

@string{brook = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}}

@string{carn = {Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy}}

@string{ej = {Economic Journal}}

@string{jmcb = {Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking}}

@string{jme = {Journal of Monetary Economics}}

@string{jpe = {Journal of Political Economy}}

@string{metric = {Econometrica}}

@string{perp_fed_ch = {Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago}}

@string{qje = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}}


@misc{icpsr_00003,
	Author = {{Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research}},
	Date-Added = {2015-04-15 15:55:30 -0500},
	Date-Modified = {2015-04-15 15:57:42 -0500},
	Doi = {10.3886/ICPSR00003.v1},
	Publisher = {Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) {$[$}distributor{$]$}},
	Title = {Historical, Demographic, Economic, and Social Data:  The United States, 1790-1970},
	Ty = {DATA},
	Url = {http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR00003.v1},
	Year = {2005},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR00003.v1},
	Bdsk-Url-2 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR00003.v1}}

@misc{conferenceboard_note,
	Author = {{The Conference Board}},
	Title = {Consumer Confidence Survey$^{\textregistered}$ Technical Note},
	Year = {2011},
	Month={February}}
	
@article{asy_qje,
	Author = {Pierfederico Asdrubali and Bent E. S{\o}rensen and Oved Yosha},
	Journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	Month = {November},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {1081-1110},
	Title = {{Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963-1990}},
	Volume = {111},
	Year = {1996}}

@article{chms,
	Author = {Steven G. Craig and Wided Hemissi and Satadru Mukherjee and Bent S{\o}rensen},
	Note = {Working Paper, University of Houston},
	Title = {{How Do Politicians Save? Buffer Stock Management of Unemployment Insurance Finance}},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{jjp,
	Author = {C. Kirabo Jackson and Rucker C. Johnson and Claudia Persico},
	Note = {NBER Working Paper 20847},
	Title = {{The Effects of School Spending on Educational and Economic Outcomes: Evidence from School Finance Reforms}},
	Year = {2015}}

@article{avw,
	Author = {Stefano G. Athanasoulis and Eric van Wincoop},
	Journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics},
	Month = {November},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {688-698},
	Title = {{Risk Sharing within the United States: What Do Financial Markets and Fiscal Federalism Accomplish?}},
	Volume = {83},
	Year = {2001}}

@article{monacelli_perotti,
	Author = {Tommaso Monacelli and Roberto Perotti},
	Note = {NBER Working Paper 14584},
	Title = {{Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects, and Markups}},
	Year = {2008}}

@article{sala_sachs,
	Author = {Xavier Sala-I-Martin and Jeffrey Sachs},
	Note = {NBER Working Paper 3855},
	Title = {{Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe from the United States}},
	Year = {1991}}

@article{card_payne,
	Author = {David Card and A. Abigail Payne},
	Journal = {Journal of Public Economics},
	Month = {January},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {49-82},
	Title = {{School Finance Reform, the Distribution of School Spending, and the Distribution of Student Test Scores}},
	Volume = {83},
	Year = {2002}}

@article{hoxby,
	Author = {Caroline M. Hoxby},
	Journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	Month = {November},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {1189-1231},
	Title = {{All School Finance Equalizations are not Created Equal}},
	Volume = {116},
	Year = {2001}}

@article{french_dudes,
	Author = {Vincent Duwicquet and Etienne Farvaque},
	Note = {Working Paper, Universit\'{e} Lille and Universit\'{e} du Havre and Skema Business School},
	Title = {{US Interstate Risk Sharing: A Post-Crisis Examination}},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{swy_eer,
	Author = {Bent S{\o}rensen and Lisa Wu and Oved Yosha},
	Journal = {European Economic Review},
	Month = {June},
	Number = {7},
	Pages = {1271-1310},
	Title = {{Output Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy: U.S. State and Local Governments 1978-1994}},
	Volume = {45},
	Year = {2001}}

@article{ramey_shapiro,
	Author = {Valerie A. Ramey and Matthew D. Shapiro},
	Journal = {Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy},
	Pages = {145-194},
	Title = {{Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending}},
	Volume = {48},
	Year = {1998}}

@article{perotti_1999,
	Author = {Roberto Perotti},
	Journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	Month = {November},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {1399-1436},
	Title = {{Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad}},
	Volume = {114},
	Year = {1999}}

@article{baxter_king,
	Author = {Marianne Baxter and Robert G. King},
	Journal = {The American Economic Review},
	Month = {June},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {315-334},
	Title = {{Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium}},
	Volume = {83},
	Year = {1993}}

@article{rotemberg_woodford,
	Author = {Julio J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford},
	Journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
	Month = {December},
	Number = {6},
	Pages = {1153-1207},
	Title = {{Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity}},
	Volume = {100},
	Year = {1992}}

@article{ramey_survey,
	Author = {Valerie A. Ramey},
	Journal = {Journal of Economic Literature},
	Month = {September},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {673-685},
	Title = {{Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?}},
	Volume = {49},
	Year = {2011}}

@article{christiano_eichenbaum_rebelo,
	Author = {Lawrence Christiano and Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo},
	Journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
	Month = {February},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {78-121},
	Title = {{When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?}},
	Volume = {119},
	Year = {2011}}

@article{sims_wolff,
	Author = {Eric Sims and Jonathan Wolff},
	Note = {NBER Working Paper 19749},
	Title = {{The Output and Welfare Effects of Fiscal Shocks over the Business Cycle}},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{gali_lopezsalido_valles,
	Author = {Jordi Gal\'{i} and J. David L\'{o}pez-Salido and Javier Vall\'{e}s},
	Journal = {Journal of the European Economic Association},
	Month = {March},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {227-270},
	Title = {{Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption}},
	Volume = {5},
	Year = {2007}}

@article{denes_eggertsson_gilbukh,
	Author = {Matthew Denes and Gauti B. Eggertsson and Sophia Gilbukh},
	Journal = {The Economic Journal},
	Month = {February},
	Number = {566},
	Pages = {F133-F163},
	Title = {{Deficits, Public Debt Dynamics and Tax and Spending Multipliers}},
	Volume = {123},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{sala_i_martin,
	Author = {Xavier X. Sala-I-Martin},
	Note = {NBER Working Paper 6252},
	Title = {{I Just Ran Four Million Regressions}},
	Year = {1997}}

@article{engemann_owyang_zubairy,
	Author = {Kristie M. Engemann and Michael T. Owyang and Sarah Zubairy},
	Journal = {Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review},
	Month = {March/April},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {117-132},
	Title = {{A Primer on the Empirical Identification of Government Spending Shocks}},
	Volume = {90},
	Year = {2008}}

@article{coenen_etal,
	Author = {Gunter Coenen and Christopher J. Erceg and Charles Freedman and Davide Furceri and Michael Kumhof and Ren\'{e} Lalonde and Douglas Laxton and Jesper Lind\'{e} and Annabelle Mourougane and Dirk Muir and Susanna Mursula and Carlos de Resende and John Roberts and Wern	er Roeger and Stephen Snudden and Mathias Trabandt and Jan In't Veld},
	Journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics},
	Month = {January},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {22-68},
	Title = {{Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models}},
	Volume = {4},
	Year = {2012}}

@article{kormilitsina_zubairy,
	Author = {Anna Kormilitsina and Sarah Zubairy},
	Note = {Working Paper, Southern Methodist University and Texas A\&M University},
	Title = {{Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison}},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{ramey_zubairy,
	Author = {Valerie A. Ramey and Sarah Zubairy},
	Note = {NBER Working Paper 20719},
	Title = {{Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data}},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{ramey_qje,
	Author = {Valerie A. Ramey},
	Journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	Month = {February},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {1-50},
	Title = {{Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing}},
	Volume = {126},
	Year = {2011}}

@article{orz,
	Author = {Michael T. Owyang and Valerie A. Ramey and Sarah Zubairy},
	Journal = {The American Economic Review},
	Month = {May},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {129-134},
	Title = {{Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data}},
	Volume = {103},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{alloza,
	Author = {Mario Alloza},
	Note = {Working Paper, University College London},
	Title = {{Is Fiscal Policy More Effective in Uncertain Times or During Recessions?}},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{fisher_peters,
	Author = {Jonas D. M. Fisher and Ryan Peters},
	Journal = {The Economic Journal},
	Month = {May},
	Number = {544},
	Pages = {414-436},
	Title = {{Using Stock Returns to Identify Government Spending Shocks}},
	Volume = {120},
	Year = {2010}}

@article{fazzari_morley_panovska,
	Author = {Steven M. Fazzari and James Morley and Irina Panovska},
	Title = {{State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy}},
	Year = {2015},
	Journal = {Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics},
	Month = {June},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {285-315},
	Volume = {19}}

@article{jorda_taylor,
	Author = {Oscar Jord\`{a} and Alan M. Taylor},
	Title = {{The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy}},
	Year = {2016},
	Journal={The Economic Journal},
	Month={February},
	Number={590},
	Volume={126},
	Pages={219-255}}

@article{blanchard_perotti,
	Author = {Olivier Blanchard and Roberto Perotti},
	Journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	Month = {November},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {1329-1368},
	Title = {{An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output}},
	Volume = {117},
	Year = {2002}}

@article{rieracrichton_vegh_vuletin,
	Author = {Daniel Riera-Crichton and Carlos A. V\'{e}gh and Guillermo Vuletin},
	Note = {World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6993},
	Title = {{Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions and Expansions: Does It Matter Whether Government Spending is Increasing or Decreasing?}},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{auerbach_gorodnichenko_japan,
	Author = {Alan J. Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko},
	Note = {NBER Working Paper 19911},
	Title = {{Fiscal Multipliers in Japan}},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{nelson_kang,
	Author = {Charles R. Nelson and Heejoon Kang},
	Journal = {Econometrica},
	Month = {May},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {741-751},
	Title = {{Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series}},
	Volume = {49},
	Year = {1981}}

@article{cogley_nason,
	Author = {Timothy Cogley and James M. Nason},
	Journal = {Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control},
	Month = {January-February},
	Number = {1-2},
	Pages = {253-278},
	Title = {{Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter on Trend and Difference Stationary Time Series: Implications for Business Cycle Research}},
	Volume = {19},
	Year = {1995}}

@article{murray,
	Author = {Christian J. Murray},
	Journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics},
	Month = {May},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {472-476},
	Title = {{Cyclical Properties of Baxter-King Filtered Time Series}},
	Volume = {85},
	Year = {2003}}

@article{nelson,
	Author = {Charles R. Nelson},
	Note = {Working Paper, University of Washington},
	Title = {{The Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition in Retrospect and Prospect}},
	Year = {2006}}

@incollection{gospodinov_herrera_pesavento,
	Author = {Nikolay Gospodinov and Ana Maria Herrera and Elena Pesavento},
	Booktitle = {VAR Models in Macroeconomics - New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims},
	Chapter = {9},
	Editor = {Thomas B. Fomby and Lutz Kilian and Anthony Murphy},
	Pages = {81-115},
	Publisher = {Emerald Group Publishing Limited},
	Title = {{Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Pretesting in VAR Models}},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{auerbach_gorodnichenko_aej_ep,
	Author = {Alan J. Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko},
	Journal = {American Economic Journal: Economic Policy},
	Month = {May},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {1-27},
	Title = {{Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy}},
	Volume = {4},
	Year = {2012}}

@article{ilzetzki_mendoza_vegh,
	Author = {Ethan Ilzetzki and Enrique G. Mendoza and Carlos A. V\'{e}gh},
	Journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
	Month = {March},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {239-254},
	Title = {{How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?}},
	Volume = {60},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{gordon_krenn,
	Author = {Robert J. Gordon and Robert Krenn},
	Note = {Working Paper, Northwestern University and U.S. Airways},
	Title = {{The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Fiscal Multipliers, Capacity Constraints, and Policy Contributions}},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{barro_redlick,
	Author = {Robert J. Barro and Charles J. Redlick},
	Journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	Month = {February},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {51-102},
	Title = {{Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes}},
	Volume = {126},
	Year = {2011}}

@article{hall,
	Author = {Robert E. Hall},
	Journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
	Month = {Fall},
	Pages = {183-231},
	Title = {{By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?}},
	Volume = {2009:2},
	Year = {2009}}

@article{crafts_mills,
	Author = {Nicholas Crafts and Terence C. Mills},
	Journal = {The Journal of Economic History},
	Month = {December},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {1077-1104},
	Title = {{Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of `Keynesian' Policies in 1930s' Britain}},
	Volume = {73},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{yang_fidrmuc_ghosh,
	Author = {Weonho Yang and Jan Fidrmuc and Sugata Ghosh},
	Note = {CESifo Working Paper No. 4689},
	Title = {{Using Military Build-Ups to Capture Fiscal Shocks: A Reassessment}},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{clemens_miran,
	Author = {Jeffrey Clemens and Stephen Miran},
	Journal = {American Economic Journal: Economic Policy},
	Month = {May},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {46-68},
	Title = {{Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending}},
	Volume = {4},
	Year = {2012}}

@incollection{auerbach_gorodnichenko_book,
	Author = {Alan J. Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko},
	Booktitle = {Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis},
	Editor = {Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi},
	Pages = {63-98},
	Publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	Title = {{Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion}},
	Year = {2012}}

@article{rossi_zubairy,
	Author = {Barbara Rossi and Sarah Zubairy},
	Journal = {Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking},
	Month = {September},
	Number = {6},
	Pages = {1247-1270},
	Title = {{What is the Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Shocks in Explaining U.S. Macroeconomic Fluctuations?}},
	Volume = {43},
	Year = {2011}}

@article{mountford_uhlig,
	Author = {Andrew Mountford and Harald Uhlig},
	Journal = {Journal of Applied Econometrics},
	Month = {September/October},
	Number = {6},
	Pages = {960-992},
	Title = {{What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?}},
	Volume = {24},
	Year = {2009}}

@article{kaplan_violante,
	Author = {Greg Kaplan and Giovanni L. Violante},
	Journal = {Econometrica},
	Month = {July},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {1199-1239},
	Title = {{A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments}},
	Volume = {82},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{canova_pappa,
	Author = {Fabio Canova and Evi Pappa},
	Journal = {The Economic Journal},
	Month = {April},
	Number = {520},
	Pages = {713-737},
	Title = {{Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks}},
	Volume = {117},
	Year = {2007}}

@article{candelon_lieb,
	Author = {Bertrand Candelon and Lenard Lieb},
	Journal = {Journal of Economic Dynamics \& Control},
	Month = {December},
	Number = {12},
	Pages = {2679-2694},
	Title = {{Fiscal Policy in Good and Bad Times}},
	Volume = {37},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{blanchard_leigh,
	Author = {Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh},
	Journal = {The American Economic Review},
	Month = {May},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {117-120},
	Title = {{Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers}},
	Volume = {103},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{davig_leeper,
	Author = {Troy Davig and Eric M. Leeper},
	Journal = {European Economic Review},
	Month = {February},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {211-227},
	Title = {{Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Fiscal Stimulus}},
	Volume = {55},
	Year = {2011}}

@article{zubairy_2014,
	Author = {Sarah Zubairy},
	Journal = {International Economic Review},
	Month = {February},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {169-195},
	Title = {{On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates from a Medium Scale DSGE Model}},
	Volume = {55},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{biolsi_asymm,
	Author = {Christopher Biolsi},
	Note = {Working Paper, University of Houston},
	Title = {{Asymmetric Effects of Government Purchases over the Business Cycle}},
	Year = {2015}}

@article{hussain_malik,
	Author = {Syed M. Hussain and Samreen Malik},
	Title = {{Asymmetric Effects of Exogenous Tax Changes}},
	Year = {2016},
	Journal={Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control},
	Month={August},
	Number={},
	Volume={69},
	Pages={268-300}}

@article{romer_romer_transfers,
	Author = {Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer},
	Note = {NBER Working Paper 20087},
	Title = {{Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Changes, 1952-1991}},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{auerbach_gorodnichenko_spillovers,
	Author = {Alan J. Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko},
	Journal = {The American Economic Review},
	Month = {May},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {141-146},
	Title = {{Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy}},
	Volume = {103},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{kuhn_george,
	Author = {Florian Kuhn and Chacko George},
	Note = {Working Paper, Binghamton University and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation},
	Title = {{Business Cycle Implications of Capacity Constraints under Demand Shocks}},
	Year = {2015}}

@article{hodrick_prescott,
	Author = {Robert J. Hodrick and Edward C. Prescott},
	Journal = {Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking},
	Month = {February},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {1-16},
	Title = {{Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation}},
	Volume = {29},
	Year = {1997}}

@article{beveridge_nelson,
	Author = {Stephen Beveridge and Charles R. Nelson},
	Journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {151-174},
	Title = {{A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series into Permanent and Transitory Components with Particular Attention to Measurement of the `Business Cycle'}},
	Volume = {7},
	Year = {1981}}

@article{morley_piger,
	Author = {James Morley and Jeremy Piger},
	Journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics},
	Month = {February},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {208-221},
	Title = {{The Asymmetric Business Cycle}},
	Volume = {94},
	Year = {2012}}

@article{canzoneri_etal,
	Author = {Matthew Canzoneri and Fabrice Collard and Harris Dellas and Behzad Diba},
	Note = {Working Paper, Georgetown University and University of Bern},
	Title = {{Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions}},
	Year = {2015}}

@article{gilchrist_yankov_zakrajsek,
	Author = {Simon Gilchrist and Vladimir Yankov and Egon Zakraj\u{s}ek},
	Journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
	Month = {May},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {471-493},
	Title = {{Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets}},
	Volume = {56},
	Year = {2009}}

@article{hamilton_ms,
	Author = {James D. Hamilton},
	Journal = {Econometrica},
	Month = {March},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {357-384},
	Title = {{A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle}},
	Volume = {57},
	Year = {1989}}

@article{kim_morley_piger,
	Author = {Chang-Jin Kim and James Morley and Jeremy Piger},
	Journal = {Journal of Applied Econometrics},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {291-309},
	Title = {{Nonlinearity and the Permanent Effects of Recessions}},
	Volume = {20},
	Year = {2005}}

@article{kim_nelson_pluck,
	Author = {Chang-Jin Kim and Charles R. Nelson},
	Journal = {Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking},
	Month = {August},
	Number = {3, Part 1},
	Pages = {317-334},
	Title = {{Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations: Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components}},
	Volume = {31},
	Year = {1999}}

@article{mittnik_semmler,
	Author = {Stefan Mittnik and Willi Semmler},
	Journal = {Journal of Economic Behavior \& Organization},
	Month = {August},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {502-522},
	Title = {{Regime Dependence of the Fiscal Multiplier}},
	Volume = {83},
	Year = {2012}}

@article{hansen_threshest,
	Author = {Bruce E. Hansen},
	Journal = {Econometrica},
	Month = {May},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {575-603},
	Title = {{Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation}},
	Volume = {68},
	Year = {2000}}

@article{bachmann_sims,
	Author = {Rudiger Bachmann and Eric R. Sims},
	Journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
	Month = {April},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {235-249},
	Title = {{Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks}},
	Volume = {59},
	Year = {2012}}

@article{murray_nelson_2000,
	Author = {Christian J. Murray and Charles R. Nelson},
	Journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
	Month = {August},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {79-95},
	Title = {{The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP}},
	Volume = {46},
	Year = {2000}}

@misc{gorodnichenko_slides,
	Author = {Yuriy Gorodnichenko},
	Title = {{Discussion of: `Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data'}},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{jorda_irf,
	Author = {Oscar Jord\`{a}},
	Journal = {The American Economic Review},
	Month = {March},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {161-182},
	Title = {{Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections}},
	Volume = {95},
	Year = {2005}}

@article{koop_pesaran_potter,
	Author = {Gary Koop and Hashem Pesaran and Simon M. Potter},
	Journal = {Journal of Econometrics},
	Month = {September},
	Number = {1},
	Pages = {119-147},
	Title = {{Impulse Response Analysis in Nonlinear Multivariate Models}},
	Volume = {74},
	Year = {1996}}

@article{italian_dudes,
	Author = {Giovanni Caggiano and Efrem Castelnuovo and Valentina Colombo and Gabriela Nodari},
	Note = {{Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series Working Paper No. 26/14}},
	Title = {{Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News from a Nonlinear World}},
	Year = {2014}}

@article{schmidt,
	Author = {Julia Schmidt},
	Note = {Working Paper, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies},
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@article{clark,
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@article{christiano,
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@article{fishback_horrace_kantor,
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@article{staiger_stock,
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@article{cohen_coval_malloy,
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@article{durlauf_navarro_rivers,
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	Year = {2014}}

@article{chang_li,
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@article{alesina_ardagna,
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	Year = {2013}}

@article{angrist_jorda_kuersteiner,
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@article{eggertsson,
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@article{farhi_werning,
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@article{giavazzi_pagano,
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@article{hansen_threshtest,
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	Year = {1996}}

@article{hausman,
	Author = {Joshua K. Hausman},
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	Year = {2016},
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	Volume={106}}

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@article{mankiw_weinzierl,
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@article{michaillat,
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	Year = {2004}}

@article{nelson_plosser,
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	Journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
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	Volume = {10},
	Year = {1982}}

@article{newey_west,
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	Volume = {55},
	Year = {1987}}

@article{ng_perron,
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	Volume = {90},
	Year = {1995}}

@article{papell_prodan,
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	Volume = {36},
	Year = {2004}}

@article{perron,
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	Volume = {57},
	Year = {1989}}

@article{romer_1992,
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	Volume = {52},
	Year = {1992}}

@incollection{ramey_book,
	Author = {Valerie A. Ramey},
	Booktitle = {Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis},
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	Publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	Title = {{Government Spending and Private Activity}},
	Year = {2012}}

@article{ramey_narrative,
	Author = {Valerie A. Ramey},
	Note = {Working Paper, University of California, San Diego},
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	Year = {2014}}

@article{zou,
	Author = {Ben Zou},
	Note = {Working Paper, Michigan State University},
	Title = {{The Local Economic Impacts of Military Personnel Contractions}},
	Year = {2016}}

@article{romer_romer_tax,
	Author = {Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer},
	Journal = {The American Economic Review},
	Month = {June},
	Number = {3},
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	Title = {{The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks}},
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	Year = {2010}}

@article{parker,
	Author = {Jonathan A. Parker},
	Journal = {Journal of Economic Literature},
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	Volume = {49},
	Year = {2011}}

@article{parker_souleles_johnson_mcclelland,
	Author = {Jonathan A. Parker and Nicholas S. Souleles and  David S. Johnson and Robert McClelland},
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@article{eggertsson_2008,
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@article{eggertsson_2012,
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@article{sahm_shapiro_slemrod,
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@article{dupor_2016,
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	Year = {2016}}

@article{dupor_2015,
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	Year = {2015}}

@article{tagkalakis,
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@misc{fischer,
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@article{fishback_cullen,
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@article{fishback_kachanovskaya,
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@incollection{fishback_etal_article,
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	Booktitle = {{The Economics of Climate Change}},
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	Year = {2011}}

@misc{fishback_etal_data,
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@misc{ashmita,
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	Year = {1951}}

@article{mcgrattan_ohanian,
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	Year = {2010}}

@article{ostergaard_sorensen_yosha,
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@misc{ipums_data,
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	Year = {2010}}

@article{shoag_long,
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	Note = {Working Paper, Harvard University},
	Title = {{The Impact of Government Spending Shocks: Evidence on the Multiplier from State Pension Plan Returns}},
	Year = {2010}}

@article{shoag_short,
	Author = {Daniel Shoag},
	Journal = {The American Economic Review},
	Month = {May},
	Number = {3},
	Pages = {121-124},
	Title = {{Using State Pension Shocks to Estimate Fiscal Multipliers since the Great Recession}},
	Volume = {103},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{suarezserrato_wingender,
	Author = {Juan Carlos Su\'{a}rez Serrato and Philippe Wingender},
	Note = {NBER Working Paper 22425},
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	Year = {2016}}

@article{thornton_thompson,
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@misc{databook,
	Author = {{United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census}},
	Date-Modified = {2015-04-15 15:58:39 -0500},
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	Publisher = {Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) {$[$}distributor{$]$}},
	Title = {{County and City Data Book $[$United States$]$ Consolidated File: County Data, 1947-1977}},
	Ty = {DATA},
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	Year = {2012},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR07736.v2}}

@misc{countyfile,
	Author = {{United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census}},
	Date-Modified = {2015-04-15 15:59:01 -0500},
	Note = {ICPSR09835-v1, Ann Arbor, MI},
	Publisher = {Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) {$[$}distributor{$]$}},
	Title = {{CONTIGUOUS COUNTY FILE, 1991 $[$United States$]$}},
	Ty = {DATA},
	Url = {http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR09835.v1},
	Year = {1992},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR09835.v1}}

@misc{consumer_survey,
	Author = {{U.S. Dept. of Labor. BLS. Cost of Living Division, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. BHE. Economics Division, U.S. Natural Resources Committee. Consumption Research Staff. Industrial Section, U.S. Central Statistical Board, and U.S. WPA}},
	Note = {ICPSR08908-v3, Ann Arbor, MI},
	Publisher = {Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) {$[$}distributor{$]$}},
	Title = {{Study of Consumer Purchases in the United States, 1935-1936}},
	Ty = {DATA},
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	Year = {2009},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR08908.v3}}

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	Year = {1996}}
	
@article{kehrig,
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	Title={{The Cyclical Nature of the Productivity Distribution}},
	Year={2015},
	Note={Working Paper, University of Texas},
	}
	
@article{gabaix,
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@book{keynes,
	Address = {London, UK},
	Author = {John Maynard Keynes},
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	Year = {1936}}
	
@article{bayoumi_klein,
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@article{hess_shin,
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